Marine Weather Net

Cape Elizabeth ME to Merrimack River MA Marine Forecast


REST OF TONIGHT

N
WINDS
10 - 15
KNOTS

FRI

NW
WINDS
15 - 20
KNOTS

FRI NIGHT

NW
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

SAT

W
WINDS
20 - 25
KNOTS

The Marine Weather Forecast In Detail:
ANZ154 Forecast Issued: 1048 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
Rest Of Tonight...N Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt, Increasing To 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 30 Kt Late. Seas 5 To 7 Ft. Patchy Fog Late This Evening And Early Morning. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri...Nw Winds 15 To 20 Kt With Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. Rain. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm.
Fri Night...Nw Winds 20 To 25 Kt With Gusts Up To 40 Kt. Seas 5 To 8 Ft. A Chance Of Rain In The Evening.
Sat...W Winds 20 To 25 Kt, Diminishing To 15 To 20 Kt In The Afternoon. Gusts Up To 35 Kt. Seas 4 To 7 Ft, Subsiding To 3 To 5 Ft In The Afternoon.
Sat Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt, Becoming Nw 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Seas 2 To 4 Ft.
Sun...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Sun Night...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon...Nw Winds Around 10 Kt, Becoming S In The Afternoon. Seas 2 To 3 Ft.
Mon Night...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas Around 2 Ft.
Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Seas 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Rain.
Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 25 Kt. Seas 3 To 5 Ft. Rain Likely.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1051pm EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Synopsis
A stalled front brings another round of steady, heavy rains tonight as low pressure tracks northward offshore. This along with significant snowpack ripening or, in the case of the coastal plain and adjacent interior, significant snowpack melt will increase the threat for flooding. Precipitation ends as snow Friday, especially across the higher terrain, before things become drier and gusty over the weekend, especially Saturday. Dry and warmer into Monday, with unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

Near Term - Until 6am Friday Morning
1048 PMA generally light and orderly rainfall continues to occur across much of the forecast area late this Thursday evening. No flooding problems have been noticed at this time other than some localized street flooding in the normal areas. Rain will continue overnight, especially on the coastal plain. High elevation snows are likely, especially later on. Winds will increase late tonight as well, with a windy day in store for Friday.

7 PMLittle change to the going forecast at this time, just a few mainly minor adjustments to Probability of Precipitation at this time based on latest radar trends and CAM trends. Nudged the back edge of meaningful precipitation eastward away from the CT River as it appears to be drying out there. Subsequently, took down the flood watch for Cheshire County. In addition, fog is lifting in the precipitation shield so no need for advisory at this time.

Previously... Periods of rain continue to stream northward through the area overnight tonight as stalled front remains offshore, with the steadiest rain and highest amounts still expected along the coastline. Patchy dense fog continues overnight, especially in areas that still have snow cover present. A steadier round of rain is moving in for the late afternoon hours, and then after a brief showery period through the evening another steadier round moves through the overnight hours as low pressure tracks offshore. The last round overnight is mostly expected to miss western New Hampshire, with the highest amounts toward the MidCoast.

Short Term - 6am Friday Morning Through Saturday
The steadiest and heaviest rain continues through the MidCoast and central Maine most of the day. The rain will try to end as a bit of snow on the backside of the low by late in the day, with the best chance for this across the higher terrain. Even so, a brief burst of snow can't be ruled out in the lower elevations if the precipitation becomes heavy enough in the late afternoon as the low goes by. New Hampshire spends most of the day dry, with a fairly sharp cut set up through western Maine most of the day tomorrow.

Winds become gusty by the late afternoon hours, especially downwind of the mountains in Maine after the low passes by the east. Gusty conditions continue overnight tomorrow night as upslope snow showers continue through the higher terrain and near the Canadian border. Relatively cooler air also begins to return. Temps cool to near freezing along the coastline, with mid 20s expected across northern areas as drier air moves in on the northwesterly flow.

Long Term - Saturday Night Through Wednesday
Fairly amplified 500 MB pattern continues across NOAM and environs which will be enhanced by fairly potent wave diving S out of W Canada and closing off a 500 MB low over the E by the middle of next week. This allows ridging to build late this weekend into early next week, followed by troughing mid-late week. Temps tend to stay fairly close to normal through the period, trending a little of above normal this weekend and slightly below normal next week.

Breezy conditions will continue into Saturday, in response to deepening surface low tracking NE through the maritimes. It should be fairly sunny with highs around 40 in the mtns, to the mid to upper to 40s along the ME coast, and into the low 50s in southern NH. Winds diminish some some Sat night, but decoupling is unlikely except in the most sheltered, but still enough Cold Air Advection to push lows from 20-25 in the mtns to the upper 20s to low 20s in the S. There may be a surge of clouds late Sat night into early Sunday, but it should clear out to at least partly, if not mostly sunny by midday with highs a hair warmer than Saturday, and less wind. Monday night will be mainly clear with lows mostly in the 20s. And Monday stays dry and warmer with partly sunny skies and highs 45-50 in the mtns to 50-55 in the S.

It’s after this that the weather turns unsettled as the closed low deepens to our SW, and generally pushes NE Wed-Thu. IT does build a decent ridge ahead of it which may keep things relatively dry on Tuesday, but Tuesday night through Thu look relatively unsettle as that system pushes through with shower and a period of steady precipitation at some point. Temps, both surface and aloft, look marginal for rain or snow, with the mtns showing the best chance of a more significant snow, and climo says this will be a mainly rain event for the southern zones, but given how far out in the forecast it is, and we;re dealing with a closed low separated from the flow, confidence is still low, despite some agreement between the Euro and the GFS.

Marine
Short Term
Northwesterly gales develop across the outer waters tomorrow afternoon as low pressure tracks through the eastern Gulf of Maine and into Nova Scotia tomorrow night. These continue into Saturday morning, with SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions expected across the Bays.

Long Term
SCA (Small Craft Advisory) winds may persist into Sat night, but should fall below criteria from Sunday through Tuesday.

Hydrology
Unfolding rain on snow event expected to continue for another 18-24 hours with minor flood conditions possible. The primary impact will be small stream and river rises, and flooding along low water crossing and urban areas due to rain and snowmelt. Moderate rainfall will combine with warmer temperatures and high dewpoints for snowmelt, with losses of 1 to 1.75" from the existing snowpack, less in the headwaters. The latest forecast track will keep the heaviest rainfall across central and eastern Maine, with the regional flood risk highest along the Midcoast and lower Kennebec River Valley with an additional 1-2" of rain and 1" of snowmelt. Though there will be less rainfall, the cumulative rain/snow runoff could be sufficient for small stream and urban issues into southern NH and SW ME. A slight wobble in the track or longer duration of rain could easily result in more widespread impacts. Moderate river flooding is not expected at the time of this issuance, with probabilities less than 10%. Note: Many climate sites are in the top 5 wettest on record, with this late month event expected to approach all time records for Augusta and Portland. Portland's record 11.24" in 2010, Augusta's is 9.71" in 1953.

NOAA Gray/Portland ME Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories
ME...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MEZ009-012>014-019>022- 024>028-033. Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MEZ018-023. NH...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NHZ004-006-008>010- 012>015.

Marine
Gale Warning from 2pm Friday to 8am EDT Saturday for ANZ150>152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4pm EDT Saturday for ANZ153.