New York Harbor Marine Forecast
| This Afternoon...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. Isolated Showers And Tstms. |
| Tonight...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Isolated Tstms In The Evening. Isolated Showers. |
| Tue...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Slight Chance Of Showers In The Morning. |
| Tue Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt, Becoming Ne 5 To 10 Kt After Midnight. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms After Midnight. |
| Wed...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 To 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Wed Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Thu...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Thu Night...Se Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Fri...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. |
| Fri Night...Se Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1051am EDT Monday April 29 2024 Synopsis A back door cold front moves through the region this evening. A frontal wave then moves through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with high pressure returning thereafter for the end of the week. Another frontal system is expected for the weekend. Near Term - Through Tonight Temperatures continue to run several degrees higher than forecast, as generally clear skies continue. A band of clouds, associated with a nearly stationary front, was across western Massachusetts and into southeastern Connecticut and Rhode Island. Updated the hourly temperatures, and based on soundings, have maintained the forecast high temperatures inland, and adjusted down a degree or two across Long Island and coastal Connecticut with onset of sea breezes this afternoon. Ridging continues to build in aloft over the eastern CONUS, with the axis expected to be overhead sometime early Tuesday. A back door cold front approaches this afternoon and moves through this evening. Today will be the warmest day of the year so far, with some humidity too, with dew points into the lower 60s, and highs into the lower to mid 80s for most. Bit of a tricky temperature forecast with the timing of the front, sea breezes and any clouds this morning being huge factors. The thinking is that skies will be mostly sunny this morning and temps will rise quickly with decent mixing in a northwest flow. Once the sea breezes kick in, temperatures will drop as always this time of the year. Long Island, coastal CT and portions of NYC and northeast NJ will likely see their highs in the early afternoon. With sea breeze boundaries and some energy rounding the base of the ridge aloft, some afternoon convection is possible as SBCAPE values will be around 500-1000 J/kg for NYC north and west. Have added a slight chance of thunder to the forecast. The CAMs are in pretty good agreement with the location of any convection being NYC north and west. Thicker cloud cover returns tonight with a moist onshore flow. lows will be in the upper 40s in the eastern half of the area and mid 50s in the western half. Short Term - Tuesday Through Wednesday Night A frontal boundary likely remains just south of the area through Tuesday night. As previously mentioned, the upper ridge axis will pass overhead early Tuesday. A shortwave then approaches with associated surface frontal wave Tuesday night. This will bring the next shot of rain to the area with chances Tuesday evening through the first half of Wednesday. Capped at 50% Probability of Precipitation for now, with the most likely period being Tuesday night. There is also a slight chance of thunder. High pressure starts building in from the north and east Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday than they will be today, but still at or above normal for late April/early May. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday No major changes were made to the forecast Thursday through the upcoming weekend *Key Points* *Dry conditions expected Thursday and Friday. *The next frontal system may impact the area for the upcoming weekend, bringing the next chance of showers. *Temperatures will continue running slightly above normal. Shortwave troughing that will be moving across the region Wednesday pushes offshore on Thursday. Upper ridging will reestablish itself over the eastern states to end the week. Another upper trough then lifts north out of the intermountain west on Friday, then up into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This will send another weakening frontal system into the area Saturday into Sunday. The modeling has been slowing down the timing for the ridge axis to weaken or shift east. This has also slowed down when higher probabilities for showers exist across the region. It may take until late Saturday or Saturday night for the ridge to weaken enough to allow the front to enter the area. Showers are possible late Saturday into Saturday night. Model spread increases further for Sunday with several solutions showing ridging trying to return and the front dissipating. There are also solutions showing the ridge moving to the western Atlantic on Sunday with a larger upper trough trying to edge closer to the east coast, which would act on the front to bring higher chances of showers. Maintained the chance of showers on Sunday based on the latest NBM. Did not include thunder as there is too much uncertainty with the mesoscale environment at this time range. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach the lower to middle 60s near the coast with onshore component to the wind. Further inland, highs should reach the lower to potentially middle 70s. Highs are much more uncertain this weekend with NBM box and whisker plots showing ranges of highs from the lower 60s to the upper 70s, especially away from the immediate coast. This is likely due to the aforementioned uncertainties with cloud cover, potential showers, and proximity of the front. Marine No changes to the winds and seas at this time. Given a weak pressure gradient over the area for several days, winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the first half of the weekend. Hydrology There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Climate Here are the record high temperatures for Monday, April 29: EWR: 91/1974 BDR: 86/2017 NYC: 89/1974 LGA: 88/2017* JFK: 85/2017 ISP: 85/2017 *Also occurred in previous years NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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