Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA Marine Forecast
| Overnight...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot, Then Around 2 Ft. |
| Wed...Sw Winds 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Showers And Tstms Likely In The Evening, Then A Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 2 To 3 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming N In The Afternoon. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sat Night...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Sw After Midnight. Waves 1 Foot, Then Around 2 Ft After Midnight. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Foot. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 955pm EDT Tuesday May 7 2024 Synopsis Summer-like conditions with daily showers and storms are expected through Thursday, with a cold front expected to push through the region late Thursday through Friday. An upper level trough will keep a chance for showers late Saturday into Sunday, with dry conditions expected Monday. Near Term - Until 6am Wednesday Morning As of 950pm EDT Tuesday... Rain showers from earlier have dissipated due to a loss of daytime heating. Outside of an isolated shower, we should stay dry for most of the night. Will have to keep an eye on any upstream convective complexes over the Ohio Valley as some CAMs continue to hint at residual echoes trying to clip northern portions of the area early Thursday morning. In addition, fog has already started to develop across portions of the VA/MD Eastern Shore due to moisture from the earlier rain showers combined with a light onshore flow. Patchy fog will likely continue in these locations for much of the night, with visbilities potentially dropping below 1/2 mile at times. Overnight lows will be mild and in the mid 60s for most of the area (upper 50s along the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore). Short Term - 6am Wednesday Morning Through Friday As of 300pm EDT Tuesday... While the ridge flattens some into Wednesday, low-level thicknesses will be at their greatest, favoring the hottest temps of the week. Most guidance agrees on nearly everywhere flirting w/ 90 degrees with some output even suggesting a few sites reaching 92-93F. Even those on the eastern shore should reach the upper 80s. Given dew points in the 60s (low 60s NW/mid-upper 60s SE), afternoon heat indices approach the mid and potentially upper 90s. The other story will be continued chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. With a strong upper low shifting E towards the Great Lakes and an approaching (but flattening) mid/upper trough, stronger flow aloft is forecast to overspread the FA. Area-averaged soundings show more than adequate bulk shear to support svr weather (~40 kt). Additionally, the aforementioned heat/humidity will favor moderate-strong instability with MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg in the afternoon. highest across the S/SE. The one caveat is we again are lacking a prominent trigger for storms w/ the WSW surface flow and ridge aloft, so may have to again rely on residual boundaries or upstream perturbations to spark convection. Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the SW half of the area to a slight risk, which is where the highest confidence resides regarding convective coverage and strong instability. Would not be surprised to see this expanded to the rest of the FA in future updates. Steep low and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates argue for both large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats from any storm that can develop. Convection may linger into the evening and overnight as instability will be slow to wane. Also, there is a better signal in the guidance that a mesoscale convective system (or its remnants) will move through at some point Wednesday night, which explains the elevated overnight and early morning PoPs. Overnight lows will be in the mid-upper 60s. The highest coverage of severe weather is expected Thursday as even stronger flow aloft overspreads the region and a surface cold front approaches from the W. Aloft, the approaching upper trough will induce height falls and provide more widespread forcing for ascent. Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for the entire area. Some of the CAMs continue to suggest prior-day shower/storm activity may linger into the morning hrs Thursday, which could mess with the afternoon instability to some extent. However, it is notoriously difficult to time these features (even in the <24 hr timeframe) and the models tend to perform poorly in their development and evolution. Damaging winds and large hail continue to look like the most likely threats from any storm. Given the frontal forcing, it seems probable that storms would eventually grow upscale in a linear-type feature, with widespread damaging winds becoming increasingly favored. Low-level hodograph curvature is also somewhat enhanced near the front, though high LCLs would argue against a robust tornado threat. With more clouds around, high temps will be cooler and generally in the 80s (warmest S/SE, coolest N). Also cooler Thu night with lows in the upper 50s-low 60s. Friday starts off mainly dry, but scattered showers are expected to redevelop as the upper trough swings through and the associated shortwave moves across either VA or the Carolinas. There will be limited sfc-based instability but the cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft could set off some thunderstorms. mainly across the southern 1/2 of the CWA. At this time, severe weather is not expected. Highs on Fri will be cooler, mainly in the lower to mid 70s (upper 70s possible far S). Long Term - Friday Night Through Tuesday As of 300pm EDT Tuesday... There remains some uncertainty for both Friday night and through the weekend. The 12z deterministic GFS (Global Forecast System) continues to phase the upper trough with southern stream energy Fri night (this is because it is slower and more amplified with the trough). This leads to surface low pressure formation along the baroclinic zone just offshore of the Carolinas. Such a scenario would push widespread stratiform rainfall N towards the FA Fri evening and overnight. The 12z ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) suppresses this feature further S as it is depicts a more neutral trough tilt. At this time, will keep the highest Probability of Precipitation across the SE assuming the surface low passes well to our S. Beyond this, the weekend weather pattern will feature yet another upper trough diving SE from the Great Lakes and passing off the mid-Atlantic coast Sat night through Sunday. The airmass will be cooler and fairly dry but will continue w/ 20-30% Probability of Precipitation (highest N) for Sat night through early Sunday afternoon. It looks mainly dry from late Sunday through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s), potentially warming further into the middle of next week. Marine As of 250pm EDT Tuesday... Latest analysis continues to show a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the northern mid-Atlantic, with 1018+mb surface high pressure centered south of Bermuda. A weak lee trough continues to sharpen west of the waters, allowing for S-SW winds over the region ~10-12 kt. Waves 1-2 ft, with seas generally 2 to 4ft with some weak E-SE swell at 8-10 seconds. High pressure remains anchored well offshore through mid week, with (sub-SCA) S-SW flow also persisting throughout the midweek period. A series of upper waves traverse north of the area, and bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Timing will continue to favor the late afternoon/evening into the early overnight hours. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas could accompany the stronger storms. A stronger low approaching from the W-SW with the trailing cold frontal passage crossing the waters Friday morning/afternoon. Winds quickly veer to the W-NW post-frontal Friday afternoon. A brief Cold Air Advection surge could bring a brief window of SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) to the Bay and lower James Friday night, with winds then diminishing through the day Saturday. Winds quickly veer back to the SSW again Saturday night and Sunday ahead of another weaker front. That front crosses Sunday night, with winds eventually veering back to the NNW Sunday night and into early next week. Aside from enhanced winds/seas in convection over the next few days and a brief period of potential SCA-level winds Friday night, conditions remain largely Sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) through the period. Waves generally 1-2 ft with seas 2-4 ft through the end of the work week. week. Tides / Coastal Flooding As of 250pm EDT Tuesday... The upcoming new moon cycle and the Perigee from this past weekend will lead to continued positive tidal anomalies over the next few days. Given the ongoing light southerly flow, some nuisance to low- end minor coastal flood impacts are possible for coastal communities along the upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac River during the upcoming astronomically higher high tide cycle late this evening into Wednesday morning. Added some Coastal Flood Advisories for Lancaster and Northumberland Counties (Lewisetta) and from Accomack VA north to Somerset, Dorchester, and Wicomico (MD) counties on the bay side of the eastern shore. Potential for some additional nuisance to near minor water levels over the next couple of days before tidal anomalies ease later this week. NOAA Wakefield VA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6am EDT Wednesday for VAZ077-078- 099. Marine None. |
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