Eastern Bay, MD Marine Forecast
| Rest Of The Overnight...S Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. Isolated Showers. |
| Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Scattered Showers. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds 5 Kt. Waves Less Than 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. Showers. |
| Thu Night...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Fri...Nw Winds 10 Kt With Gusts To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...N Winds 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...W Winds 10 Kt...Becoming Sw. Waves 1 Ft. A Chance Of Showers Through The Night. |
| Sun...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves 1 To 2 Ft. A Chance Of Showers. Winds And Waves Higher And Visibilities Lower In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Synopsis Showers and thunderstorm chances continue through Thursday with multiple waves moving through the Mid-Atlantic. A strong cold front will bring increased chances for severe and flooding impacts Thursday into early Friday. Precipitation chances decrease behind the front going into the weekend with cooler temperatures and high pressure nearing the Mid-Atlantic. Near Term - Through Tonight Precipitation from the decaying convection across the Ohio Valley will continue to slowly move into the area this morning. The strongest cells look to stay further north of the area into PA. Nonetheless, have the chance for some showers and an isolated thunderstorm to approach the northern half of the area this morning, mainly before 9-10 AM. After that, conditions improve with even some periodic breaks in the clouds. Downsloping flow coupled with subtle subsidence in the wake of the decaying MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) may keep the overall threat for scattered thunderstorms down today. There still remains an isolated threat for a few thunderstorms, mainly across the southern most parts of the area in central VA and southern MD later this afternoon. Essentially, if a storm is realized, then there could be some strong to severe characteristics to it given the convective parameters it will have to work with. Main threats with any of these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. With the downsloping flow in place, expect temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s across most areas aside from the mountains (mid 70s). Some lower elevations may flirt with 90 degrees, especially if enough breaks in the clouds occur. So, mainly a fairly dry afternoon and evening with just isolated chances for a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across central VA and southern MD. By tonight, clouds will increase from the west ahead of the approaching cold front moving in from the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will increase from west to east, especially after midnight, and continue through the night and into Thursday morning. Short Term - Thursday Through Friday Night Increasing showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning ahead of the cold front passage. Expect overall Quantitative Precipitation Forecast to be 0.50 to 1" with localized higher amounts, especially in heavier downpours and thunderstorms. Isolated instances of flooding will be possible, given the anomalously high PWATs (Precipitable Waters) coupled with antecedent moist conditions over the last week, especially across areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A fairly sharp instability gradient may develop east of the Blue Ridge just ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. There is some uncertainty with this given any earlier convection/cloud debris from early convection late tonight into early Thursday. Should there be a lull with increasing breaks in the clouds, then some thunderstorms may develop and become strong to even severe. Main hazards will be damaging winds along with large hail of 1 inch diameter or greater as a result of steeper lapse rates. The best chances for thunderstorms will likely be across the VA Piedmont into southern MD. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the MD/PA border, with low 80s further south across central VA. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger early Friday, with showers continuing throughout much of the day as a result of the departing low pressure system off to the north. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon. Highs will cooler as a result of northwest flow, with mid to upper 60s across most areas with even mid 50s across the Allegheny Front. NW winds will be gusting 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon on Friday, with higher gusts possible along the ridges. Long Term - Saturday Through Tuesday Longwave troughing will remain in place across the eastern US this weekend. On Saturday we'll start the day off between one shortwave departing offshore, and another digging down the backside of the longwave trough into the Ohio Valley. The latter shortwave will pass overhead Saturday night into the day Sunday. Conditions should start off mostly sunny on Saturday within the subsidence behind the departing shortwave. Clouds and eventually showers will be on the increase as we progress through the afternoon as large scale ascent ahead of the next shortwave starts to overspread the area. Chances for showers will continue through Saturday night and into the day Sunday as the upper trough axis moves overhead. High temperatures this weekend are forecast to reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s, while low temperatures will generally be in the 40s to lower 50s. Upper troughing will progress off to our east early next week, allowing heigheights to start rising aloft. Such a pattern will lead to drier conditions and a warming trend in temperatures. Highs are expected to reach into the low-mid 70s on Monday, and into the mid- upper 70s on Tuesday. Marine Westerly winds may near SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria this afternoon, especially across the northern bay and upper tidal Potomac. There are still uncertainties with this but will continue to monitor the trends for any needed issuances. Cannot rule out an SMW across the southern water especially this afternoon with any strong thunderstorms that cross the waters but confidence is low in this occurring. SCAs (Small Craft Advisories) are possible Thursday and Friday as a result of southerly channeling. SMWs will be possible Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front passage bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms over the waters. Winds may near low-end SCA (Small Craft Advisory) values in west to southwesterly flow on Saturday, and then again in northwesterly flow on Sunday. Tides / Coastal Flooding Water levels remain elevated in southerly flow this morning. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for the ongoing tide cycle at Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC. Westerly winds should allow water levels to decrease this afternoon. Winds turn southerly again late tonight into tomorrow morning, which could lead to additional Minor flooding at the most sensitive sites. NOAA Baltimore MD/Washington DC Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7am to 11am EDT this morning for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9am EDT this morning for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5am EDT early this morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. Marine None. |
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