Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel, TX Marine Forecast
| Today...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog Until Late Afternoon. |
| Tonight...South Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog. |
| Thursday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. Patchy Fog In The Morning. |
| Thursday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots, Diminishing To Around 10 Knots In The Late Evening And Early Morning, Then Becoming North Late. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 4 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Friday...Northeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Northeast 3 Feet At 4 Seconds And Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Friday Night...East Winds Around 15 Knots, Becoming Northeast 15 To 20 Knots After Midnight. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. Wave Detail: Southeast 3 Feet At 7 Seconds. |
| Saturday...East Winds 15 To 20 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Saturday Night...East Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. |
| Sunday...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms. |
| Sunday Night...Southeast Winds 10 To 15 Knots. Seas 3 To 4 Feet. A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms In The Evening. Winds And Seas Higher In And Near Thunderstorms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 633am CDT Wednesday May 8 2024 .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 407am CDT Wednesday May 8 2024 College Station remains the only primary climate site to have reached 90 degrees in 2024, picking up their hottest day of the year so far. However, everyone else is gonna give it a good shot today and tomorrow, with high temperatures right around 90 degrees expected for two more days. Pair that with dewpoints in the 70s, and we can look for heat index values to peak out near or above 100 degrees for all but the immediate Gulf Coast both days. For those that spend time strenuously working and may be interested in the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, our forecast corresponds a moderate to high risk of heat illness, and indicates a need to begin factoring in the impact of heat to outdoor work, especially for unacclimated folks (pretty much all of us right now). Just to re-emphasize what I wrote above in the synopsis: even though this is not even close to the hottest we'll get this summer, as far as heat stress is concerned, it's much more relevant that this stretch is the hottest it's been in some time. Heat illness numbers can spike at lower levels early in the warm season, as people will get going a little too much for what their body is acclimated to. So even though these numbers may not be eye-popping to you, it's a good time to practice spending more time indoors, or at least out of the sun, and taking more frequent rest and water breaks. Beyond the impact of the heat itself, a lot of heat and humidity also indicates plenty of fuel available for strong thunderstorms...if any manage to get going. And that is an extremely big "if" today and tomorrow. The main catalyst for severe weather in the US will be far north of our area, and unlikely to overcome the strong cap built out by solid southwest flow just above the surface today. There does look to be a very weak upper shortwave trough rolling through later today, and may be just enough support for vertical motion that we get an isolated storm going. If a storm can tap into that available instability, it can easily become strong to severe. Today especially, that threat should be confined to the very northernmost portions of our area of responsibility (and really beyond that for more significant threats). Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazards. A brief tornado isn't impossible, but it is a lower concern relative to hail and wind. Tomorrow looks much the same as today when it comes to storms. A very conditional threat where there's plenty of instability to tap into, but will require any storms to get going in the first place. Like yesterday, we'll again be looking for a weak shortwave trough to stream through and provide a bit of help to any developing storm updrafts, likely late Thursday afternoon into the evening. The key difference from today is that the southwest flow at low levels that should build out a strong cap are expected to break down at some point tomorrow. This could make it easier for isolated to widely scattered storms to break out. The severe threat is again higher to the north of the Houston metro, but the weaker capping flow allows for some severe threat to expand across more of Southeast Texas. A slight risk area (level 2 of 5) covers the northern bulk of the area, roughly north of I-10, and an enhanced risk area (level 3 of 5) comes up right to the edge of the boundary between our forecast area and that of our colleagues in Fort Worth. That means that it probably behooves folks in Burleson, northern Brazos, Madison, and Houston counties to keep a wary eye up to the northwest, as a small change in expectations could result in a greater severe threat for them. Large hail is the primary hazard to watch out for tomorrow, with damaging wind gusts coming in a close second. Like today, a tornado can't be totally ruled out, but is not as great a concern as the other severe hazards. Long Term (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 407am CDT Wednesday May 8 2024 A weak cold front will push off the coast during the early morning hours of Friday, ushering in drier and slightly cooler weather into the early weekend. Expect mostly clear skies during the day, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Lows overnight will be in the 60s with isolated locations in the upper 50s. Surface high pressure slides east through the Southern Plains on Saturday, allowing onshore flow to gradually return during the day. Remnants of the frontal boundary starts to gradually lift north as a warm front later in the day, suppling additional moisture and bringing PWs of 1.5-1.8 inches. Lifting from the boundary will be further supplemented by weak impulses aloft from a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest. This should produce scattered showers and storms, beginning over out west/southwestern Saturday evening and spreading to the remainder of SE Texas into Sunday morning. Around this point, the closed low/trough will be near the TX/OK Panhandle, providing additional lift overhead. Combining this forcing with the lifting warm sector should allow for more widespread showers/thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings also suggest high precipitation efficiency in this environment, favoring the potential for locally heavy rainfall. WPC has portions of SE Texas under a Slight (level 2/4) to Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Mother's Day on Sunday. We'll get more specifics on how this next system will unfold over the next few days. Shower/storm activity decreases overnight into Monday as the aforementioned upper trough slides eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. Lingering moisture will keep scattered/isolated rain chances throughout the day and into Tuesday as well. Marine Issued at 407am CDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Light to moderate onshore flow is expected through Thursday ahead of a frontal boundary. This persistent fetch will bring seas of 3-5 feet in the Gulf and elevated tide levels along the coast. High flows from rivers, creeks and streams will lead to above normal water levels in the bays and intercoastal water way today, which may make navigation difficult at times. A weak cold front pushes offshore during the early morning hours of Friday. Moderate north to northeasterly winds develop in the fronts wake, warranting caution flags into the weekend. Onshore flow returns Saturday evening, with rain chances increasing into Sunday as our next weather system pushes through the region. Hydrology Issued at 340pm CDT Monday May 6 2024 Updated at 407am CDT Wednesday May 8 2024 There are low chances for thunderstorms today and Thursday, but is not expected to result in any additional flooding concerns. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks), however. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe. Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Moderate or Major flood stage as of Tuesday afternoon: - Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Crockett): Rising to Moderate tonight - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate Flood Stage Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend. 24/ Climate Issued at 407am CDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Two record high minimum temperature records for the date of May 7 were at least matched in the Houston area yesterday. The City of Houston record high minimum for the day was tied at 77. This matches the old record from 2002. At Hobby, the record for the highest minimum temperature for the date was broken. The low of 78 bested the old record of 77 degrees from 2003. NOAA Houston/Galveston TX Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories TX...None. GM...None. |
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