Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT / Port Jefferson NY Marine Forecast
| Overnight...S Winds Around 5 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Ft At 7 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 10 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Slight Chance Of Tstms Late With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Wed...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: S 1 Ft At 2 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Showers Likely With Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Afternoon. Vsby 1 To 3 Nm In The Morning. |
| Wed Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Nw After Midnight. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: Sw 1 Ft At 2 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 5 Seconds. Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Evening With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: E 1 Ft At 2 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 6 Seconds. Chance Of Showers In The Morning, Then Showers Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: E 1 Ft At 2 Seconds And Se 1 Ft At 6 Seconds. Showers Likely. |
| Fri...E Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Wave Detail: E 1 Ft At 3 Seconds And S 1 Ft At 7 Seconds. Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...S Winds Around 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun...S Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Seas 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Seas May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 132am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Synopsis A low pressure system moves north of the area Wednesday, with its associated warm front moving north late overnight into early Wednesday morning. Another low pressure system approaches along a frontal boundary south of the region Thursday into Thursday night. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then east of the region Friday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Saturday before another low moves across Sunday. Weak offshore high pressure establishes for early next week. Near Term - Until 6am This Morning Some slight adjustments for this update are with respect to PoPs and temps / dew point readings over the next several hours. Forecast essentially on track, although did nudge down Probability of Precipitation ever so slightly before 8-9z. Previous discussion follows. Patchy fog expected for Eastern Long Island and SE Connecticut where surface flow late tonight becomes more SE and these locations will be the last within the local forecast region to receive more steady rainfall showers. Weak offshore high pressure moves farther into the western Atlantic as a mid-level shortwave over the Great Lakes approaches from the west. Light onshore flow will aid in the moistening of the BL and prevent temperatures from dropping too low. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s region wide where lower 50s are more likely for areas east and upper 50s to near 60 will be more likely for the NYC metro and surrounding areas. A line of convection associated with the shortwave over the Midwest/Ohio Valley will begin to make its way into the area overnight and into the early morning on Wednesday. This will result in the increasing chance for showers with embedded thunderstorms overnight into early Wednesday morning, with highest likelihood for this activity from SW CT, Western Long Island and NYC west through NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Short Term - 6am This Morning Through 6pm Thursday The batch of convective debris from the remnants of upstream storms will continue to make its way through the area during the morning. These showers and embedded storms will largely exit the area by mid to late morning, allowing for clearing into the afternoon for areas to the west. Clearing skies will allow for a rapid warming of the surface as strong heating takes over behind the departing showers. The timing and quickness of the clearing will depend on how far east the warmth will get. As of now, highs for the western areas like the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast NJ, and the NYC metro will be in the middle 70s to middle 80s. A relatively sharp gradient in high temperatures will occur where eastern areas may only sees highs in the low to middle 60s. As the shortwave approaches the area into the afternoon, heigheights fall as a weak trough moves overhead. Steepening lapse rates combined with the strong surface heating will allow for the development of moderate instability, generally 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, over much of the area by late afternoon. Despite the instability, a mid-level cap is expected to prohibit widespread storm development. Forcing for ascent appears to be limited to closer to the shortwave up to the north. As such, kept coverage of showers and storms into the afternoon at slight chance to chance, with a better chance of seeing convection for areas further north and west. If convection develops, storms may become strong to locally severe with the primary threats being damaging wind gusts and hail. Storm Prediction Center has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms but threat diminishes in more stable and cooler air closer to the coast and further east where less surface heating takes place during the day and instability will be elevated as opposed to surface-based. The chance for storms diminishes after sunset with the remainder of the overnight period being fairly dry, though a moist BL may allow for the development of low stratus and fog. Lows will once again be in the low 50s east to upper 50s west. Long Term - Thursday Night Through Tuesday Upper levels exhibit active jet stream pattern across the region Thursday through Friday. Then the jet is positioned more to the south of the region for the weekend and into early next week. Mid levels convey a southward moving wide trough that gets closer Thursday into Friday, bringing the area more positive vorticity advection in the process. The same pattern generally remains going through the weekend, with the trough moving farther east of the region early next week. At the surface, low pressure approaches the region Thursday into Thursday night along a front south of the region. Model differences still present with progression of the surface low, some more recent model runs of NAM and GFS (Global Forecast System) keeping low pressure west of the region by early Friday whereas ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and Canadian keep low pressure farther east. The low pressure center moves across Friday and then shifts farther east of the region for Friday night. High pressure then briefly builds in Saturday but will be quite transient, quickly giving way to another approaching low from the north and west Saturday night. The low moves in Sunday and Sunday night but will be of weak magnitude. Weak high pressure establishes offshore for early next week. Rain showers are in the forecast much of the time Thursday through Friday night with the next main chance of rain showers Saturday night through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions are forecast thereafter. Some of the rain showers Thursday into Thursday evening could be moderate to possibly heavy. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night with cold pool(a region of relatively cold air) aloft moving in with the upper level trough. Forecast high temperatures near normal Thursday, more below normal Friday, and then near normal for the weekend. Potentially more above normal temperatures could occur for early next week. However, there is uncertainty. Marine Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through Wednesday night as seas will essentially average close to 3 ft. Long term from Thursday through the weekend, sub-SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions forecast for non-ocean marine zones but on the ocean, potential for SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions due to seas. SCA (Small Craft Advisory) seas forecast on the ocean at times mainly between Thursday night through the weekend. Hydrology Minor nuisance flooding possible with rain showers Thursday into Thursday evening. WPC maintains much of the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday evening. Tides / Coastal Flooding Astronomical tides run high the next several days with a new moon tonight. Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Thursday across coastal southern Nassau, Queens, and Fairfield counties with inundation up to a foot. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Wednesday and Thu evening's high tides, particularly in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau and Queens. Elsewhere, localized minor flooding for this evening's high tide in coastal Westchester, Brookyln, and northern Nassau/Queens. Inundation up to a half foot is possible. Additional minor flooding is possible thru Thursday evening. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2am EDT early this morning for CTZ009. NY...None. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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