Pamlico River & Pungo River Marine Forecast
| Today...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Light Chop, Increasing To A Moderate Chop. A Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Afternoon. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms Late. |
| Tonight...Sw Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms. |
| Thu...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers And Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers And Tstms Likely In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers And Tstms Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Fri...W Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. A Chance Of Showers With A Slight Chance Of Tstms In The Morning, Then Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Afternoon. |
| Fri Night...Nw Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves A Moderate Chop. Showers Likely With A Chance Of Tstms In The Evening. |
| Sat...Nw Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming W In The Afternoon. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sat Night...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. |
| Sun Night...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt. Waves Light Chop. Winds And Waves Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 334am EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Synopsis High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday. Drier and more seasonable temperatures expected this weekend. Near Term - Today As of 3am Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored offshore, weak surface troughing inland and mid level ridge building over the SE US. Mid-upper level ridging will gradient shift offshore today, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop over the Carolinas. Within the flow, an impulse, or two, lifting out of the Lower MS Valley will move through the SE later today and tonight, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass to support an increased risk of clusters of thunderstorms. Locally, there will also be some potential for convection along the seabreeze, which may be pinned closer to the coast courtesy of the westerly low-level flow. Challenging forecast regarding convective development today and tonight, and it remains low confidence. This type of setup is a classic one for MCS (Mesoscale Convective System, a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms) development, though with this type of pattern models can oftentimes struggle with the evolution of convection as it moves downstream. Diurnal heating of a warm, moist airmass will support moderate to locally strong destabilization this afternoon, with MLCAPEs (Convective Available Potential Energy - high values indicate potential for severe weather) increasing to 2-3,000 J/kg and deep layer shear 25-35 kt. This will support the potential for organized thunderstorms. with potential for damaging winds (60+ mph), large hail (>1") and an isolated tornado. The caveat is that the evolution of upstream convection will have a significant impact on the airmass, as any early convection would tend to keep instability lower, and vice-versa. Eastern NC remains in a Slight risk of svr weather (west of Hwy 17) and a Marginal risk (east of Hwy 17). Timing wise, it looks like the greatest svr weather threat will be late this afternoon into early evening...though depending on the evolution, the threat could linger later into the evening. 00z CAMs show little convective development before 20z. Hot and humid today, with highs climbing to around 90/low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s for the beaches. Temps combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s will lead to heat index values peaking in the mid 90s for much of the area. Short Term - Tonight As of 3am Wed...Convective threat will likely linger through this evening and possibly through the overnight hours. Initial seabreeze driven convection will likely weaken will loss of diurnal heating this evening, with potential for a secondary round of convection overnight as weakening MCS moves across the Carolinas. The potential for svr weather will continue, with main threats still damaging winds, large hail and an iso tornado. Long Term - Thursday Through Tuesday As 315am Wed... Most impactful weather looks to occur at the beginning of the period, though there does remain some uncertainty with regards to the severe threat on Thurs still. ENC then dries out over the weekend as high pressure ridge builds in from the west and remains over the area into early next week. Next potential round of unsettled weather begins to approach the area around midweek next week. Thursday...As we get into Thurs, upper level trough over the Great Lakes begins to pivot to the south and east while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift. At the mid levels a fairly potent mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE'wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With this in mind, early morning shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to clear out before additional development is forecast in the afternoon with activity likely beginning to the west and quickly moving E'wards into the FA. Out ahead of the trough and approaching cold front the environment across ENC appears rather supportive for severe weather. Model soundings and latest Hi-Res guidance suggest ample MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) as well as ample DCAPE (700-900 J/kg) and inverted V soundings across the region. In addition to this, deep layer wind shear of 30-40 kts, slightly stronger forcing, and mid level lapse rates closer to 6.5- 7.0 C/km all suggest we will have another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thurs afternoon and evening with storms bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and hail given the environment. ENC remains in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs afternoon and evening. One potential failure mode for the Thurs threat would be what happens with Wednesdays convective activity. While it seems to be the outlier, some of the CAM guidance does suggest more robust tstm activity Wednesday night with a MCS moving to our south Thurs morning. If this were to occur, we could see lower instability values and thus a potentially lower severe threat as ENC gets robbed of more robust dynamics and moisture from the MCS to the south. With this in mind, current thinking is this solution has a 20% or less chance of occuring with an 80% chance for strong to severe thunderstorm activity on Thurs and the current forecast reflects this. Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to refine it on the coming updates to see how this threat trends. Highs get into the low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the 60s. Friday through Early Next Week Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspreads the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. At the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE'wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure then develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. Once again kept thunder in the grids for Fri as HREF and NBM probs continue to highlight the potential for about 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to remain over the area. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes as upper level ridging begins to overspread the Southeast. Dry frontal passage currently forecast Sunday evening into Monday before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west on Mon. Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal. Marine SHORT TERM Through Tonight As of 3am Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 5-10 kt north of Hatteras and stronger at 10-20 kt south of Hatteras, with seas 2-4 ft. SW winds will be increasing through the day as the thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a brief period of SCA conditions across the waters and Pamlico Sound late this afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt, and seas building to 3-5 ft. There will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially late afternoon through the overnight hours. Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday As of 315am Wed... Still expecting a cold front passage Fri morning with shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of the front Thurs afternoon and evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity possible once again on Fri across all waters as the front pushes offshore and a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. Drier weather then expected this weekend and into early next week. Otherwise we start the period out under SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions from Oregon Inlet south and across the Pamlico Sound as SW'rly winds out ahead of the cold front quickly increase after daybreak on Thursday to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts. Elsewhere across the northern waters and sounds as well as the inland rivers, slightly lighter winds will persist closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up around 25 kts, though will have to monitor trends in case inclusion of SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) becomes necessary especially along the N'rn coastal waters and Neuse river. As the front nears and eventually pushes offshore Fri morning SW'rly winds then decrease down to 10-15 kts, thus ending SCA's (Small Craft Advisories) across all waters. Behind the front winds gradually turn to a W and then NW direction at 10-15 kts. By Sat light and variable winds are forecast as high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the west with W'rly flow at 10-15 kts returning Sunday into early next week. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters to start the period quickly increase on Thurs to 5-8 ft. Seas then lower just as quickly on Fri morning back down to 3-5 ft and then to 2-4 ft by Fri evening remaining at these heigheights into early next week. NOAA Newport/Morehead City NC Office - Watches - Warnings - Advisories NC...None. Marine Small Craft Advisory from 10am Thursday to 5am EDT Friday for AMZ135(Pamlico Sound). Small Craft Advisory from 10am Thursday to 8am EDT Friday for AMZ152(Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras NC)-154. Small Craft Advisory from 8am Thursday to 8am EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. |
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