Peconic and Gardiners Bays Marine Forecast
| Tonight...W Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Around 5 Kt After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Slight Chance Of Showers And Tstms Early This Evening. Patchy Fog Late This Evening And Early Morning With Vsby 1 To 3 Nm. |
| Thu...Nw Winds Around 5 Kt, Becoming E In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers In The Afternoon. |
| Thu Night...E Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft. Chance Of Showers. |
| Fri...Ne Winds 10 To 15 Kt. Waves Around 2 Ft In The Morning, Then 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely. |
| Fri Night...Ne Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Showers Likely, Mainly In The Evening. |
| Sat...N Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming Se In The Afternoon. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Sat Night...Se Winds 5 To 10 Kt, Becoming E After Midnight. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers After Midnight. |
| Sun...E Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Chance Of Showers. |
| Sun Night...W Winds Around 10 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon...Sw Winds 5 To 10 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. |
| Mon Night...Sw Winds 10 To 15 Kt With Gusts Up To 20 Kt. Waves 1 Ft Or Less. Winds And Waves May Be Higher In And Near Tstms. |
| Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 754pm EDT Wednesday May 8 2024 Synopsis A cold front stalls south of the area tonight before a low pressure approaches the area from the west on Thursday. The low lingers over the area through Friday night. A series of lows move through the vicinity of the region this weekend. High pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low potentially moves in for the middle of next week. Near Term - Until 6am Thursday Morning Forecast mainly on track with most remarkable changes made to the POPs for showers and thunderstorms as well as cloud coverage. Surface based CAPE analysis indicated around 500 to 1000 J/kg across mainly the Southern CT portion of the forecast region. Also, boundary layer is quite dry across western sections of the region but relatively more moisture for eastern parts of the region from New Haven through New London CT as well as Eastern Long Island. For these locations going into early evening, there are slight chance to chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms. The instability is expected to decrease going into early this evening which limit how strong these thunderstorms could get. A strong thunderstorm however cannot be ruled out with small hail and gusty winds with some shear to work with. Any storms come to an end by late this evening with a cold front moving through. The cold front will dry out the airmass, though eastern areas may remain moist enough to result in some patchy fog later tonight with otherwise decreasing cloud coverage. Lows tonight will be generally in the 50s, with the warmest spots in the west. Short Term - 6am Thursday Morning Through Friday Night Mid-level energy upstream will force a surface low pressure system to move across the Ohio Valley and approach the area into Thursday. Showers may approach the area during the morning but will become gradually more likely into the afternoon. The latest model guidance has trended much of the shower activity with this system to the south, which may hold off much of the shower activity off until the late afternoon or evening, especially for areas north and east. Highs Thursday will be fairly seasonable with temperatures in the middle 60s to low 70s. As the center of the low pressure moves into the area Thursday night, shower activity will increase substantially so that much of Thursday night through Friday morning will have widespread showers, some of which may be locally heavy with some embedded convective elements possible, though thunder is not likely. Though there is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the low on Friday, it looks to meander in the general area as an upper level trough moves overhead, the surface low will spin over the area on Friday resulting in additional shower activity during much of the day. As such, temperatures will be below average with highs only in the middle 50s. The shower activity should begin to wind down from west to east overnight Friday and into early morning Saturday. Long Term - Saturday Through Wednesday From analysis of large scale deterministic weather prediction models of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian models, the following features were noted from the lower to upper levels. The upper level jet is shown to remain south of the region this weekend and then with more ridging next week, parts of the upper level jet traverse the local area. Mid level trough south of region Saturday morning, then shifts east during the day with brief ridging as the local area will be in between shortwaves. Next shortwave moves in Saturday night with another moving south of the region Sunday. The larger trough encompassing these shortwaves and periodic positive vort maxima will be lingering across the region through Sunday. This trough then moves east of the region Sunday night. Overall the larger scales convey a mid level ridging trend taking place for early into middle of next week for the local area. For Monday night into early Tuesday next week, a subtle small shortwave embedded within the ridge is forecast to move across. By Wednesday, especially late day into Wednesday night, next trough could be potentially moving in from the west. At the surface, low pressure moves south and eventually southeast of the region Saturday. Weak pressure gradient follows across the local region. This weak high pressure will be brief as low pressure approaches Saturday night and moves near to south of the area early Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday into Sunday night. Offshore high pressure briefly builds in late Sunday night into early Monday and then moves farther offshore as another wave of low pressure approaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. This low pressure will be weak and will traverse the local area late Monday night into early Tuesday. Another low may approach the area next Wednesday. Chances of rain showers are forecast much of this weekend and for Sunday when relatively the coldest air aloft moves across, put in a slight chance of thunderstorms for the mid afternoon into early evening hours. Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday night through early Tuesday. Then, next chance of rain showers is forecast Tuesday afternoon into the midweek timeframe. Temperatures for the weekend exhibit less of a diurnal trend, and generally expected to be below normal for daytime hours and then near to above normal for next week. Marine Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions through Thursday. Seas and winds may approach SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria with winds near 20 kt and seas approaching 5 feet. Any marginal SCA conditions diminish once again into Friday and stay below SCA through at least Friday night. For the long term period of Saturday through Monday night, SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are probable on the ocean, due to mainly seas, for much of the timeframe. Wind gusts stay mainly below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) thresholds. Sub- SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions are forecast for non-ocean zones. Hydrology Upwards of 0.5" to 1" of rainfall is possible for western portions of the area Thursday night through Friday but are not expected to result in any hydrologic impacts. No hydrologic impacts are expected during the long- term forecast period. Tides / Coastal Flooding Astronomical tides run high the next few days with the new moon from last night. Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening high tide cycles tonight through Friday night for southern Nassau, southern Queens, and Fairfield and Westchester counties with inundation up to a foot. Coastal flood statements will be in place for tonight's high tide for Newark Bay in Hudson county and southern Queens with water levels perhaps just touching minor benchmarks. Localized moderate flooding is possible during Fri evening's high tides in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with advisories and statements likely in similar locations tonight, and perhaps including SW Suffolk and portions of the north shore of Long Island in subsequent evening high tide cycles through Friday. Statements may also be needed for Thursday and Friday evening for portions of coastal NE NJ and Staten Island. NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11pm this evening to 2am EDT Thursday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11pm this evening to 2am EDT Thursday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11pm EDT this evening for NYZ179. NJ...None. Marine None. |
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