Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2:05PM EDT (1805 UTC)
Wednesday May 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC.

Monsoon Trough And Intertropical Convergence Zone - ITCZ
(The ITCZ is also known by sailors as the doldrums)
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau close to 12N16W, to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 04N23W 05N30W 03N40W 02N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward.

...Discussion: Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge passes through 28N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, through central Florida, to the upper Texas Gulf coast. A NW-to- SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 24N100W, to the SW Gulf coastal waters, and it curves into southern Guatemala. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh SE winds span the entire area. Moderate seas are in the western half of the area. Slight seas are in the eastern half of the area. Haze continues to restrict the visibilities in parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, due to agricultural fires that have been in SE Mexico.

Fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf through Thursday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thursday night and will move across most of the basin through Fri. The front will then slow down and weaken further as extends from South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico persists in the western Gulf. Patchy fog is possible along the NW Gulf coast tonight.

...Discussion: Caribbean Sea
An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between 50W and 80W. This area includes the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong remains in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The forecast is form the trough to weaken gradually, and to move to the northeast of the area through Thursday night. Abundant deep layer tropical moisture has been remaining in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The moisture and the ample instability should result in more convective precipitation, some locally heavy, in the eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, through at least early Thursday. Please, read advisories, bulletins, and forecast watches and warnings, from your local weather bureau offices.

Moderate seas are nearly everywhere from 80W eastward. Some exceptions are for slight seas in the NE quadrant of the Caribbean Sea, and off the coast of Venezuela along 70W. Slight seas are from 80W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh easterly winds span the entire Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 08/1200 UTC, are: 1.72 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.13 in Guadeloupe; and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE Caribbean into the weekend. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Friday night due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...Discussion: Atlantic Ocean
Rough seas are from 24N northward between 35W and 50W. Moderate to rough seas are from 24N northward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are from 25N southward from Florida eastward, on the southern side of the large-scale anticyclonic wind flow.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 30N49W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 30W westward.

A surface trough is along 31N25W 20N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between 50W and 80W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 13N to 26N between 40W and 65W.

High pressure centered SE of Bermuda is supporting moderate to fresh E winds S of 23N today. These winds will diminish tonight as the high pressure shifts E. As a cold front approaches the US East Coast, fresh to strong winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight through Friday night. The front will move across Florida late Friday night into Sat.

Forecaster: Mike Tichacek, National Hurricane Center/ar